I've heard lots of people on mailing lists and newsgroups talk about ``how Linux will blow away NT or Windows 95'' when people finally learn about it. I sympathize with these sentiments, but I think they're a little far fetched for the time being.

The sad truth is that the vast majority of people who use computers don't know the difference between their motherboard and their mother-in-law. To give them something with the power of Unix is to give a formula racer to a twelve-year-old. Even professional drivers have someone else who takes care of the car. Unix users must not only use their systems, but they must act as their own pit crew. System administration as simplified by Windows 95 is still beyond many home users; if they were to attempt Unix system administration, they would wither and shrink into puddles of fear and trembling. All they really wanted in the first place was to write letters, use email, and scan pictures of their grandchildren for their website.

The only way Linux would ever be ``friendly enough'' is to remove much of its functionality, or at least package it away from the view of the simplest of users. There are some distributions who try to do this, in a way. I'm thinking of the wonderful Caldera distribution of Linux.

Caldera OpenLinux sports an easy installation routine, for the most part, and a fabulous graphical interface called LookingGlass. While it retains all of Linux's power and flexibility, the user doesn't need to change much of the desktop layout to become productive. LookingGlass is a set of configuration scripts for the fvwm window manager. It's pretty and very, very practical. But, the stock Linux kernel can't support all audio devices, so the user still has to compile his/her own kernel from source. Once again the user must fiddle under the hood of the formula racer. This is still beyond the normal user, despite the beautiful interface Caldera's OpenLinux provides. Caldera is still way ahead of the competition in terms of packaging, in general.

For Linux to be ``friendly enough,'' it would have to ship with its own system administrator who came in the box with the manual and CD-ROM. A perky geek with a bow tie and pocket protector would have to holographically pop out of the computer to talk you through the simplest tasks. But even to install Linux at this point in time, users must now know how to repartition their disks, create swap space, create and check filesystems, compile kernels and install kernel modules. The holographic geek would have to take over all of these tasks on his own. Then Linux might begin to be ``friendly enough'' for the masses.

I'm not even sure Linux is for mainstream programmers, anymore. It used to be that programmers had to build their own interfaces, create their own libraries, and pretty much build things from the ground up. From scratch. This approach definitely had its downside also, but at least programmers learned their internels and the scutwork of programming. Nowadays, programmers are expected to build working systems or applications in weeks or months. To do this they depend on pre-built classes and standard APIs. They have to focus on a single platform, usually, and that would be Windows 95 or NT. They can't be expected to support non-mainstream operating systems.

The result of this shift is that much of programming has become a narrow niche. Programmers must become very focused on making their bosses money (and their own jobs secure). Regardless of whether this is good or bad, it is the way of the world. So, narrowing of programmer's jobs has led to a growing separation between the applications programmer and the system administrator.

At least programmers have a working knowledge of their systems, far beyond the level of most home users. But even they have to learn to become system administrators to use Linux. Some programmers will have the patience to make the switch and deal with the increased power and flexibility at their disposal under Unix, but some will not. They will want to focus purely on production and leave administration to someone else. For these programmers, NT or the like will be the platform of choice. For programmers who want more administrative experience, Linux will be the tool of choice.

The people who will love Linux are those who are patient and open minded, those who want the increased flexibility and power in exchange for the cost. That winds up being a relatively small portion of the computer user masses. Hey, we're all only human!

Until recently, the power of Unix was simply beyond the grasp of most home users. The TCP/IP protocol suite, for example, was confined to some proprietary client, closed from visibility by all but those who wrote the application for Microsoft or IBM, or whoever. The the RFCs have been available online, but if you wanted to look at the source for a client tool, you had to pay a hefty licensing fee and sign a non-disclosure agreement. Linux and the GPL (GNU Public License) have changed all that forever.

Linux opens the back office to any interested or curious home user. The average Linux user would probably be the hacker in your office who perhaps is not a programmer, but who is simply curious and patient. He wants the added challenge. He's not afraid of breaking something, because he's done that before and has recovered. He likes experimenting. He's willing to take a year to become adept with Unix tools. But he takes the long view, and the knowledge and experience are worth it to him. Eventually, he may remove any Windows partitions altogether.

Also, there are the Micro-sodden sufferers who want a change. They use Windows 95 because they feel they have to and see no practical alternative. These people will be delighted to learn how practical Linux is for them, if they're willing to grow into using it. (See above.) These are the users who, I think, are posting to newsgroups and mailing lists about how Linux will take over the world. They are the new Linux Zealots, bless their hearts.

The challenge is co-existing peacefully in a Microsoft dominated universe. Sometimes it's all you can do to remain calm when Microsoft foists yet another lie on a naive public or claims some bug as ``an undocumented feature''! But Linux users have to take these things in stride or risk a stomach full of ulcers. The masses will require time and education; until then they will be vulnerable to misinformation. Claims of infinite superiority and appeals to elitism will only be a turnoff for them. Arguing with Microsoft devotees is simply another form of ``Bible bashing.''

Linux has found a home, so far, among experienced users and system administrators, especially Internet Service Providers. Also, students and eager power users continually gravitate towards Linux. And bookstore shelves increasingly offer more and more Linux titles. The revolution is happening slowly and quietly. Just because the masses are devoted to Microsoft is no cause for alarm.